Grace Under Pressure
The market by and large meandered today, moving slightly higher after yesterday's big push upward. The Russell 2000, on which I own the most puts, actually inched down in spite of the other major indexes pushing a bit higher.
The Major Market Index ($XMI) does a pretty good job representing where I think the market is it, which is at the upper reaches of a retracement. For it to move beyond its February highs would require surprising strength. It could happen, and if it does, it's time to return to the bear cave, perhaps for a long while.
The Diamonds (DIA) also do a pretty fair job - this time with some trendlines I've drawn - illustrating the retracement.
Capital One Financial (COF), which I've been mentioning forever, is finally starting to move meaningfully lower. It's about time.
Markwest Hydrocarbon (MWP) has had a huge run up the past few months. But look how the volume has softened up. It has been consolidating for a few weeks. This could mean a breakout, of course. This would be a more interesting short to me if the volume weren't so thin.
Pico Holdings (PICO) is something I mentioned as a long a while back. It seems to have run out of gas. I'd actually look to this as a short (with a tight stop) at this point.
Lastly, Ryan Air (RYAAY) is behaving in accordance with its broken trendline - - that is, moving away and down from it. This stock had been hyperbolic until that trendline was snapped.
Tomorrow will end this shortened trading week. Someone in the comments section has observed that most recent shortened weeks have been strongly bullish. We'll see if that's true or if people get jumpy enough about three days of a closed market to sell instead.
