Quantitative easing in the euro zone

歐元區(qū)量寬

Better late than never

雖然晚了，但是總比沒有強(qiáng)

The policy will help, but less so than in other big economies

這項(xiàng)政策會(huì)有所幫助。但是，其效果要比其他大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體的實(shí)施差一些

Jan 24th 2015 | From the print edition of The Economist

譯者：老狒狒

AFTER months of debate, having exhausted all the alternatives, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced on January 22nd that it was finally introducing a big programme of quantitative easing. It plans to spend €60 billion ($70 billion) a month for at least 19 months, adding hefty purchases of government bonds to an existing scheme to buy covered bonds and asset-backed securities (currently around €10 billion-worth a month). Special rules will apply to purchases of the bonds of countries like Greece which have received bail-outs. The bulk of any losses on sovereign debt that has been purchased will be borne by national central banks.

在經(jīng)過歷時(shí)數(shù)月，窮盡了所有方案的激烈辯論后，歐洲央行終于在1月22日宣布了將要啟動(dòng)量化寬松的龐大計(jì)劃。它計(jì)劃在今后至少19個(gè)月中，每月支出600億歐元（合700億美元），將大量購買政府債券的行為添加至一項(xiàng)現(xiàn)有的計(jì)劃中去，以購買資產(chǎn)擔(dān)保債券和資產(chǎn)支持證券（當(dāng)前的計(jì)劃購買量為每月100億歐元左右）。特殊規(guī)則將應(yīng)用于購買像希臘這樣已經(jīng)接受過救助的國家的政府債券。已經(jīng)被購買的主權(quán)債務(wù)債務(wù)方面的任何巨大損失都將由歐元區(qū)國家的央行來承擔(dān)。

QE—creating money to buy financial assets including sovereign bonds—was first used by the Bank of Japan in the early part of the 2000s; the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England introduced it in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008. Long-standing German antipathy to the policy, however, has made the ECB a late adopter.

QE指的是造錢以購買包括主權(quán)債券在內(nèi)的金融資產(chǎn)的行為，最早被日本銀行在21世紀(jì)的頭幾年使用；2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后不久，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和英格蘭銀行也曾推出這種政策。然而，德國對(duì)這一政策的長期反感使得歐洲央行成為了這一政策最新采納者。

The central bank is turning to QE because of the enfeebled state of the European economy. The recovery since the double-dip recession in the acute phase of the euro crisis has been weak and faltering. Slack demand has caused “l(fā)owflation”: headline prices fell in the year to December by 0.2% while core inflation (excluding volatile components like food and energy) was 0.7%. Financial markets no longer believe that the ECB will be able to get inflation back to its goal of nearly 2% over the medium term. Its previous efforts to stimulate the economy, which include becoming the first big central bank to impose negative interest rates, have been inadequate.

歐洲央行是鑒于歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的疲軟現(xiàn)狀才轉(zhuǎn)向QE的。自歐元危機(jī)最嚴(yán)重階段的雙底衰退以來的復(fù)蘇，始終軟弱無力且步履蹣跚。放緩的需求導(dǎo)致了“低通脹”：在截止去年12月的一年中，歐元區(qū)的整體物價(jià)下跌了0.2%，包括食品和能源等波動(dòng)性要素在內(nèi)的核心通脹為0.7%。金融市場(chǎng)不再相信歐洲央行有能力在中期內(nèi)讓通脹接近2％的目標(biāo)。歐洲央行在前一段時(shí)期的為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)而做出的種種努力，如成為第一個(gè)實(shí)施負(fù)利率的大型央行，都存在不足。

The deployment of QE in America and Britain involved an element of “shock and awe”, since financial markets were unfamiliar with the new measure when it was introduced in both countries. As a result it brought down yields sharply. By contrast, the markets have long been expecting the ECB to introduce QE. That has already led to a remarkable rally in sovereign-bond markets, especially in the troubled countries of southern Europe. In Portugal, for example, ten-year bond yields fell by 3.5 percentage points in the course of 2014, from 6.2% to 2.7%. (The exception is Greece, where fears of a political crisis, and even of a possible exit from the euro zone after the election on January 25th, have recently driven yields up again.) As a result the effect of implementing QE will be limited.

當(dāng)QE被引入美英時(shí)，由于金融市場(chǎng)當(dāng)時(shí)對(duì)這種新措施尚不熟悉，因而它的部署帶有一種“震撼和威攝”的成分在內(nèi)。結(jié)果，QE急劇地拉低了收益率。相比之下，市場(chǎng)長期以來始終都在希望歐洲央行推出QE。這種預(yù)期已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致主權(quán)債券市場(chǎng)，尤其是深陷困境的南歐國家的主權(quán)債務(wù)市場(chǎng)，出現(xiàn)了明顯的強(qiáng)勢(shì)。例如，葡萄牙的十年期國債收益率就在2014年一年中下跌了3.5，從6.2% 跌至2.7%（唯一的例外是希臘。這是因?yàn)樵谧罱欢螘r(shí)間內(nèi)，市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心在1月25日的大選可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)一場(chǎng)政治危機(jī)，希臘甚至有可能離開歐元區(qū)。因此，這些擔(dān)心再次推動(dòng)了改作主權(quán)債券收益率的上漲）。因此，歐洲央行實(shí)施QE的效果將是有限的。

Another difference between QE in the euro zone and in America in particular arises from the nature of their financial systems. Because firms rely much more heavily on capital markets in America, they benefited a lot as falling yields on government debt pushed investors into riskier assets such as corporate bonds. By contrast, banks are more dominant in the euro zone, so its companies will benefit less from the boost to European capital markets.

歐元區(qū)QE和美國QE的另一個(gè)顯著不同是由各自金融體系的性質(zhì)造成的。由于美國企業(yè)對(duì)資本市場(chǎng)的依賴更重一些，隨著不斷下跌的政府債券收益率推動(dòng)投資者進(jìn)入像企業(yè)債這樣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大的資產(chǎn)，它們得到了很多好處。與此形成鮮明對(duì)比的是，在歐元區(qū)，銀行的主導(dǎo)作用要更大一些。因此，歐元區(qū)的企業(yè)將較少地得益于對(duì)歐洲資本市場(chǎng)的刺激。

There are two main channels through which QE is likely to work in the euro zone. One is the “signalling” effect. By adopting the policy, the ECB is sending a clear message to markets and to firms that it is determined to bring inflation closer to 2%. The other is through the exchange rate. The euro has already been weakening since last spring. Further weakening of the single currency seems likely.

QE之于歐元區(qū)的作用可能通過兩個(gè)主要渠道來實(shí)現(xiàn)。一是信號(hào)效應(yīng)。歐洲央行采納這一政策的做法是在向市場(chǎng)和企業(yè)發(fā)出一個(gè)明確的信息：它已經(jīng)下定決心要把通脹提升至接近2％的目標(biāo)。二是匯率。自去年春天以來，歐元一直在走弱。進(jìn)一步弱化單一貨幣似乎是可能的。

All this makes the ECB's foray into QE less like the programmes launched by the Fed and the Bank of England at the height of the crisis and more like those of the Bank of Japan, which has been combating the more insidious threat of deflation. As with Japan's recent bond-buying splurge, the main effect seems likely to come via the exchange rate. The worry is that like Japan in the early 2000s, the ECB may be introducing the policy too late.

上述種種使得歐洲央行所涉足的QE不太像美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和英格蘭銀行在危機(jī)高潮時(shí)曾經(jīng)推出的計(jì)劃，它更像是一直在同更加狡猾的通縮威脅做斗爭(zhēng)的日本銀行曾經(jīng)執(zhí)行的計(jì)劃。鑒于日本近來在購買債券方面的揮霍行為，主要效果似乎有可能最終要通過匯率表現(xiàn)出來?，F(xiàn)在的擔(dān)心是，如同21世紀(jì)頭幾年中的日本那樣，歐洲央行或許在推出這一政策上行動(dòng)的太晚了。

From the print edition: Finance and economics