|
最近，亞馬遜旗下的智能音箱產(chǎn)品 Echo 和出沒于 Echo 中的語音助手 Alexa 掀起了一股旋風(fēng)。不僅智能家居業(yè)在關(guān)注、人工智能創(chuàng)業(yè)公司在關(guān)注，IT巨頭們也在關(guān)注。那么，Alexa 到底有什么獨(dú)到之處呢？ Recently, Amazon’s AI product Echo and its voice assistant Alexa set off a whirlwind in the industry. It has drawn attention from not only the smart home industry but also the AI start-ups as well as the IT giants. So, what exactly is unique about Alexa? 有人說，Alexa 在“遠(yuǎn)場”語音識(shí)別方面有絕活，解決了“雞尾酒會(huì)”難題：設(shè)想在一個(gè)人聲嘈雜的雞尾酒會(huì)上，一個(gè)人對你說話，聲音雖不很大，但你可以很精準(zhǔn)地捕捉對方的話語，而忽略周邊其他人的話語。這手絕活，據(jù)說其他語音廠商沒有，中國連語音處理最拿手的科大訊飛也沒有。 Some people say that Alexa has solved the challenging “cocktail party” problem in speech recognition: imagine a noisy cocktail party, where a person is chatting with you, the voice is not loud, but you can accurately capture the speech with no problem while ignoring the surrounding big noise. Alexa models this amazing human capability well, which is said to be missing from other leading speech players, including the global speech leader USTC iFLYTEK Co. 有人說，Alexa 背后的“技能”極其豐富，你既可以點(diǎn)播很多節(jié)目，也可以購買很多商品和服務(wù)；既可以操控家里的各款家電設(shè)備，也可以打聽各類消息。總而言之，這是一個(gè)背靠著強(qiáng)大服務(wù)資源（有些在端，更多在云）的語音助手，絕非可與蘋果的 Siri 或者微軟的小冰同日而語。 Others say that behind Alexa are very rich cross-domain know-hows: one can ask Alexa for on-demand programs, he can also buy goods and services through it; it can be instructed to control the various appliances of our home, or inquire about all kinds of news. All in all, this is a voice assistant backed by a strong service (with some resources local, and more in the cloud). Apple’s Siri or Microsoft’s Little Ice are believed to be by no means a match for Alexa in terms of these comprehensive capabilities. 端方面的出色性能，加上端 云方面的龐大資源，構(gòu)成了 Alexa 預(yù)期中的超強(qiáng)粘性，形成了傳說中巨大的入口價(jià)值。這也似乎是Alexa在美國市場取得不俗業(yè)績的一個(gè)說得通的解釋。有相當(dāng)一部分人意識(shí)到，這可能是一個(gè)巨大的商機(jī)，是一個(gè)現(xiàn)在不動(dòng)手說不定將來會(huì)追悔莫及的局。盡管在美國以外的其他市場上，Alexa的業(yè)績并不像在美國市場那樣搶眼，但是這股Alexa旋風(fēng)，還是刮遍了全球，引起了同業(yè)人士的高度緊張和一輪智能音箱模仿秀。 The excellent performance by the end device, coupled with the huge cloud resources in support of the end, constitute Alexa’s expected success in customers’ stickiness, leading to its legendary value as an information portal for a family. That seems to be a good reason for Alexa’s impressive market performance in the US. A considerable number of people seem to realize that this may represent a huge business opportunity, one that simply cannot be missed without regret. Although in other markets beyond the United States, Alexa’s performance is not as eye-catching as in the US market, this Alexa whirlwind has till been scraping the world, leading to the industry’s greatest buzz and triggering a long list of smart speaker simulation shows. Alexa 動(dòng)了誰的奶酪？搶了誰的飯碗？怎樣評價(jià) Alexa 的入口價(jià)值？怎樣看待入口之爭的昨天、今天、明天？ Hence the questions: What are the effects of this invention of Alexa? Who will be affected or even replaced? How to evaluate Alexa’s portal value? Where is it going as we look into the yesterday, today and tomorrow of this trend? 我們不妨來回顧一下“入口”的今昔變遷。所謂“入口”，就是網(wǎng)絡(luò)大數(shù)據(jù)匯聚的必經(jīng)之地。從模式上看，我們曾經(jīng)經(jīng)歷過“門戶網(wǎng)站”模式、“搜索引擎”模式和“社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)”模式，目前新一代的入口正在朝著“人工智能”模式遷移。從載體上看，“門戶網(wǎng)站”和“搜索引擎”模式的載體基本上是PC，“社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)”模式的載體基本上是以智能手機(jī)為主的端設(shè)備。“人工智能”模式有可能的改變載體嗎？換句話說，Echo-Alexa 軟硬合體，能夠以人工智能的旗號(hào)，從智能手機(jī)的頭上搶來“入口載體”的桂冠嗎？ We may wish to reflect a bit on the development of portals in the IT industry history. The so-called “portal” is an entry point or interface for an information network of large data flow, connecting consumers and services. From the model perspective, we have experienced the “web portal” model, the “search engine” model and more recently, the “social network” model, with the on-going trend pointing to a portal moving in the “artificial intelligence” mode. From the carrier perspective, the carrier for the”web portal” and “search engine” models is basically a PC while the “social network” model carrier is mainly a smart phone-based end equipment. Does the “artificial intelligence” model have the potential to change the carrier? In other words, is it possible for the Echo-Alexa hardware-software combination, under the banner of artificial intelligence, to win the portal from the smart phone as the select point of human-machine interface? 本人認(rèn)為，這是不可能的。原因有三。 I don’t think it is possible. There are three reasons. 第一，場景不對。哪怕你抗噪本事再強(qiáng)大，特定人跟蹤的本事再大，只要安放地點(diǎn)固定，就是對今天已經(jīng)如此發(fā)達(dá)的移動(dòng)場景的一種巨大的倒退。試想，家庭場景的最大特點(diǎn)就是人多，人一多，就形成了個(gè)小社會(huì)，就有結(jié)構(gòu)。誰有權(quán)發(fā)出語音指令？誰有權(quán)否定和撤銷別人已經(jīng)發(fā)出的語音指令？最有權(quán)的人不在家或者長期沉默，聽誰的？一個(gè)家庭成員如果就是要發(fā)出一個(gè)不想讓其他家庭成員知道的私密語音指令怎么辦？個(gè)人感覺，語音指令說到底還是個(gè)體行為大于家庭行為，私密需求大于開放需求。因此，家庭語音入口很可能是個(gè)偽命題。能解析的語音指令越多，以家庭場景作為必要條件的語音指令所占比重就越少。 First, the scene is wrong. Even if Alexa is powerful with unique anti-noise ability and the skills of tracking specific people’s speech, since its location is fixed, it is a huge regression from today’s well-developed mobile scenes. Just think about it, the biggest feature of a family scene is two or more individuals involved in it. A family is a small society with an innate structure. Who has the right to issue voice commands? Who has the authority to deny or revoke the voice commands that others have already issued? What happens if the authoritative person is not at home or keeps silent? What if a family member intends to send a private voice instruction? To my mind, voice instruction as a human-machine interaction vehicle by nature involves behaviors of an individual, rather than of a family, with privacy as a basic need in this setting. Therefore, the family voice portal scene, where Alexa is now set, is likely to be a contradiction. The more voice commands that are parsed and understood, the less will be the proportion of the voice commands that take the home scenes as a necessary condition. 第二，“連橫”面臨“合縱”的阻力。退一步說，就算承認(rèn)“智能家居中控”是個(gè)必爭的入口，智能音箱也面臨其他端設(shè)備的挑戰(zhàn)。我們把聚集不同廠家家居設(shè)備數(shù)據(jù)流向的傾向稱為“連橫”，把聚集同一廠家家居設(shè)備數(shù)據(jù)流向的傾向稱為“合縱”?？梢钥闯?，“連橫”的努力是對“合縱”的生死挑戰(zhàn)，比如海爾這樣在家庭里可能有多臺(tái)智能家居設(shè)備的廠商，如非迫不得已，自家的數(shù)據(jù)為什么要通過他人的設(shè)備流走呢？ Second, the “horizontal” mode of portal faces the “vertical” resistance. Even if we agree that the “smart home central control” is a portal of access to end users that cannot be missed by any players, smart speakers like Alexa are also facing challenges from other types of end equipment. There are two types of data flow in the smart home environment. The horizontal mode involves the data flow from different manufacturers of home equipment. The vertical mode portal gathers data from the same manufacturer’s home equipment. It can be seen that the “horizontal” effort is bound to face the “vertical” resistance in a life and death struggle. For example, the smart refrigerator and other smart home equipment manufactured by Haier have no reasons to let go its valuable data and flow it away to the smart speaker manufacturers. 第三，同是“連橫”的其他端設(shè)備的競爭。可以列舉的有：家用機(jī)器人、家庭網(wǎng)關(guān)/智能路由器、電視機(jī)、智能掛件等。這些設(shè)備中，家用機(jī)器人的優(yōu)勢是地點(diǎn)無需固定，家庭網(wǎng)關(guān)的優(yōu)勢是永遠(yuǎn)開機(jī)，電視機(jī)的優(yōu)勢是大屏、智能掛件（如畫框、雕塑、鐘表、體重計(jì)等）的優(yōu)勢是不占地方。個(gè)人感覺，智能音箱面對這些“連橫”的競爭者并沒有什么勝算。 Third, the same struggle also comes from other competitions for the “horizontal” line of equipment, including house robots, home gateway / intelligent routers, smart TVs, intelligent pendants and so on. The advantage of the house robots is that their locations need not be fixed in one place, the advantage of the home gateway is that it always stays on, the TVs’ advantage lies in their big screens, and intelligent pendants (such as picture frames, sculptures, watches, scales, etc.) have their respective advantage in being small. In my opinion, smart speakers face all these “horizontal” competitions and there does not seem to be much of a chance in winning this competition. 綜上所述，Echo-Alexa 的成功，具有很強(qiáng)的疊加特點(diǎn)。它本質(zhì)上是亞馬遜商業(yè)體系的成功，而不是智能家居設(shè)備或者語音助手技術(shù)的成功。忽略商業(yè)體系的作用，高估家庭入口的價(jià)值，單純東施效顰地仿制或者跟隨智能音箱，是沒有出路的。個(gè)人覺得，智能手機(jī)作為移動(dòng)互聯(lián)時(shí)代的入口載體，其地位仍然是不可撼動(dòng)的。 In summary, the Echo-Alexa’s success comes with a strong superposition characteristic. It is essentially a success of the Amazon business system, rather than the success of smart home appliances or the voice assistant technology. Ignoring the role of its supporting business system, we are likely to overestimate the value of the family information portal, and by simply mimicking or following the smart speaker technology, there is no way out. Personally, I feel that the smart phone as the carrier of an entry point of information in the mobile Internet era still cannot be replaced. 語音交互時(shí)代真的到來了嗎？ Is the era of voice interaction really coming? IT巨頭們關(guān)注 Alexa 還有一個(gè)重要的理由，就是由 Alexa 所代表的語音交互，或許開啟了人機(jī)交互的一種新型范式的興起。當(dāng)年，無論是點(diǎn)擊模式的興起還是觸摸模式的興起，都引發(fā)了人機(jī)交互范式的革命性變化，直接決定了IT巨頭的興亡。點(diǎn)擊模式?jīng)Q定了 wintel 的崛起，觸摸模式?jīng)Q定了 wintel 被蘋果的顛覆，這些我們都以親身經(jīng)歷見證過了。如果語音交互真的代表了下一代人機(jī)交互范式，那么 Alexa 就有了人機(jī)交互范式的代際轉(zhuǎn)換方面的象征意義，不由得巨頭們不重視。 One important reason for the IT giants to look up to Alexa is that the voice interaction represented by Alexa perhaps opens a new paradigm of human-computer interaction. Looking back in history, the rise of the click-mode and the rise of the touch-mode have both triggered a revolutionary paradigm shift for human-computer interaction, directly determining the rise and fall of the IT giants. The click-mode led to the rise of Wintel, the touch mode enabled Apple to subvert Wintel: we have witnessed all these changes with our own eyes. So if the voice interaction really represents the next generation paradigm for human-computer interaction, then Alexa has a special meaning as the precursor of the human-computer interaction paradigm shift. The giants simply cannot overlook such a shift and its potential revolutionary impact.
然而個(gè)人認(rèn)為，單純的語音交互還構(gòu)不成“代際轉(zhuǎn)換”的分量。理由有三： However, personally, I do not think that the speech interaction alone carries the weight for an “intergenerational revolution” for human-machine interaction. There are three reasons to support this. 第一，語音本身并不構(gòu)成完整的人機(jī)交互場景。人的信息攝入，百分之八十以上是視覺信息，在說話的時(shí)候，經(jīng)常要以視覺信息為基本語境，通過使用指示代詞來完成。比如指著屏幕上一堆書當(dāng)中的一本說“我要買這本”。就是說，語音所需要的語境，有相當(dāng)部分來自視覺的呈現(xiàn)，來自針對和配套可視化對象的手勢、觸摸或眼動(dòng)操作。這至少說明，我們需要multi-modal人機(jī)交互，而不是用語音來取代其他人機(jī)交互手段。 First, the speech itself does not constitute a complete human-computer interaction scene. People’s information intake, more than 80% of times, involves the visual information. When speaking, we often take some visual information as basic context, through the use of a pronoun to refer to it. For example, pointing to a book on the screen, one may say, “I want to buy this.” In other words, a considerable part of the context in which the speech is delivered comes from the visual presentation, ranging from gestures, touches or eye movements that target some visual objects. This at least shows that we need multi-modal human-computer interaction, rather than using voice alone to replace other human-computer interaction vehicles. 第二，目前語音輸入還過不了方言關(guān)。中國是一個(gè)方言大國，不僅方言眾多，而且方言區(qū)的人學(xué)說普通話也都帶有方言區(qū)的痕跡?！昂ㄈ恕北缓谥皇沁@種現(xiàn)象的一個(gè)夸張的縮影。要想惠及占全國總?cè)丝谝话胍陨系姆窖詤^(qū)，語音技術(shù)還需要經(jīng)歷進(jìn)一步的發(fā)展和成熟階段。 Second, the current speech recognition still cannot handle the dialect well. China is a big country with a variety of dialects. Not only dialects, but also the people in dialect areas speack Mandarin with a strong accent. To benefit more than half of the total population in the dialect areas, the speech technology still needs to go through a stage of further development and maturity. 第三，目前語音輸入還很難解決“轉(zhuǎn)義”問題。所謂轉(zhuǎn)義問題就是當(dāng)語音指令的對象是語音輸入本身的時(shí)候，系統(tǒng)如何做出區(qū)分的問題。人在發(fā)現(xiàn)前一句說的有問題需要糾正的時(shí)候，有可能需要用后一句話糾正前一句話，這后一句話不是正式的語音輸入的一部分；但也有可能后一句話并不是轉(zhuǎn)義，而是與前一句話并列的一句話，這時(shí)它就是語音輸入的一部分。這種“轉(zhuǎn)義”語音內(nèi)容的識(shí)別，需要比較高級的語義分析技術(shù)，目前還不那么成熟。 Third, the current speech recognition still has difficulty in solving the “escape” problem. The so-called escape problem involves the identification of scenarios when the speech refers to itself. When people find there is an error in the first utterance and there is a need to correct it, they may choose to use the next sentence to correct the previous sentence, then this new sentence is not part of the naturally continuous speech commands, hence the need for “being escaped”. But it is also possible that the latter sentence should not be escaped, and it is a sentence conjoined with the previous sentence, then it is part of the normal speech stream. This “escape” identification to distinguish different levels of speech referents calls for more advanced semantic analysis technology, which is not yet mature. 所以，以語音輸入目前的水平，談?wù)撜Z音輸入的“代際轉(zhuǎn)換”或許還為時(shí)尚早。甚至，語音可能只是一個(gè)疊加因素，而并不是顛覆因素。說未來會(huì)進(jìn)入multi-modal輸入的時(shí)代，說不定更加靠譜一點(diǎn)。 So, considering the current level of speech technology, it seems too early to talk about the “intergenerational revolution”. Furthermore, speech may well be just one factor, and not necessarily a disruptive one. It seems more reasonable to state that the future of human-computer interaction may enter an era of multi-modal input, rather than speech alone. 語義落地是粘性之本 The semantic grounding is the key to the stickiness of users. 語義這個(gè)字眼，似乎被某些人玩得很濫，好像會(huì)分詞了就摸到語義了，其實(shí)不然。語義的水很深。 Semantics as a term seems abused in all kinds of interpretations. Some even think that once words are identified, semantics is there, which is far from true. The semantics of natural languages is very deep and involves a lot. I mean a lot! 從學(xué)術(shù)上說，語義分成兩個(gè)部分，一個(gè)叫“符號(hào)根基”，講的是語言符號(hào)（能指）與現(xiàn)實(shí)世界（也包括概念世界）中的對象（所指）的指稱關(guān)系；另一個(gè)叫“角色指派”，講的是語言符號(hào)所指的現(xiàn)實(shí)或概念對象之間的結(jié)構(gòu)性關(guān)系。符號(hào)根基的英文是“symbol grounding”，其中的 grounding 就有落地的意思。所以，我們說的語義落地，無論學(xué)術(shù)上還是直觀上，都是一致的。Siri 在通信錄、位置、天氣等領(lǐng)域首開了在移動(dòng)互聯(lián)設(shè)備上實(shí)現(xiàn)語義落地的先河，這幾年語義落地的范圍越來越廣。 From the academic point of view, semantics is divided into two parts. One called “symbol grounding”, which is about the relationship of the language symbol (signifier) and its referent to the real world entity (including the conceptual world). The second is called “role assignment”, which is about the relationship between the referents of the language symbols in the reality. Siri is the pioneer in the mobile semantic grounding realized in the domain apps such as Address, Map and Weather. The past few years have seen the scope of semantic grounding grow wider and wider.
前面說了，“端方面的出色性能，加上端 云方面的龐大資源，構(gòu)成了 Alexa 預(yù)期中的超強(qiáng)粘性”。我們在這一節(jié)里面要進(jìn)一步探討：“端的性能”和“端 云的資源”這兩者中，誰是產(chǎn)生 Alexa 粘性的更根本原因？筆者無意玩什么“都重要，誰也離不開誰”之類的辯證平衡術(shù)，那是便宜好人，說起來冠冕堂皇，做起來毫無方向。坦率地說，如果歸因錯(cuò)誤，那么就會(huì)產(chǎn)生投入方向的錯(cuò)誤。而投入方向的錯(cuò)誤，將使模仿者東施效顰，輸?shù)皿w無完膚。 Let me review what I said before: “the excellent performance by the end equipment, coupled with the huge cloud resources in support of the end, constitute the Alexa’s expected success in users’ stickiness”. We can further explore along this line in this section. Between “the performance by the end equipment” and “the cloud resources in support of the end”, which is the root cause for Alexa’s stickiness with the customers? I do not intend to play the trick of dialectical balance by saying something like both are important and no one can do the job without the other. That is always true but cheap, and it gives no actionable insights. The consequence includes possible blind investments in both for the copycat, such investments may well lead to a complete failure in the market. 作者認(rèn)為，“端的性能”是硬件對場景的適應(yīng)性。這充其量是“好的現(xiàn)場體驗(yàn)”。但沒有實(shí)質(zhì)內(nèi)容的“好的現(xiàn)場體驗(yàn)”會(huì)很快淪為玩具，而且是不那么高檔的玩具。沒有“有實(shí)質(zhì)意義的服務(wù)”就不可能產(chǎn)生持久的粘性，而沒有持久的粘性就充當(dāng)不了持久的數(shù)據(jù)匯集入口。然而，“有實(shí)質(zhì)意義的服務(wù)”，一定源自語義落地，即語音指令與實(shí)際服務(wù)資源的對接，也就是 Alexa 的所謂“技能”。底下所說的語義落地，都是指的語音指令與無限可能的實(shí)際服務(wù)資源對接這種落地。 The author argues that “the performance by the end equipment” is about the adaptability of the hardware to the scene. This is at best about a “good live experience” of users. But a product with “good user experience” without real content will soon degrade to a toy, and they cannot even count as high-end toys. If there is no real “meaningful service” associated, there will be no sustainable stickiness of customers. Without user stickiness, they cannot become sustainable data collection entry points as a data flow portal. However, any associated “meaningful services” must come from the semantic grounding, that is, the connection from a speech command with its corresponding actual service. This is the essence behind Alexa’s so-called “know-hows.” Semantic grounding as mentioned hereafter all refers to such connection from the speech command with infinitely possible actual service resources. 語義落地需要一個(gè)強(qiáng)大的、開放領(lǐng)域的NLP引擎。服務(wù)資源千千萬萬，不可能局限在一個(gè)或少數(shù)領(lǐng)域。一個(gè)只能面對封閉領(lǐng)域的NLP引擎，無法勝任這樣的任務(wù)。能夠?qū)娱_放領(lǐng)域，說明這個(gè)引擎一定在語義分析上有非同尋常的功力，一定在語義知識(shí)的表示和處理方面走在了正確的道路上。在這方面，英語做得好，不一定漢語做得好。還不了解漢語在開放領(lǐng)域的NLP引擎是一個(gè)什么樣難度的人，不可能做出規(guī)?；恼Z義落地效果。這方面的技術(shù)壁壘可以在做同一個(gè)事情的公司間拉開有如天壤之別的巨大差距。 Comprehensive semantic grounding requires a strong open-domain NLP engine. Service resources are so diverse in tens of thousands, and they can hardly be confined to one or only a few narrow domains. An NLP engine functioning only in a narrow domain cannot do this job well. To work in the open domain requires an engine to be equipped with extraordinary capacity in the semantic analysis, and it must be on the right path in the semantic knowledge representation and processing. In this regard, even if an English engine is doing decently well, it does not necessarily mean the Chinese counterpart will work well. For those who do not yet understand the difficulty and pain points of the Chinese NLP engine in the open domain, it is hardly possible to expect them to achieve large-scale semantic grounding effects. Such technology barriers can set apart a huge gap in products attempting to do the same thing in the market between companies equipped with or without deep semantic capabilities. 語義落地需要對服務(wù)資源端的接口做出工程化的適配。這同樣是一個(gè)非常艱巨的任務(wù)，而且是拼資源、拼效率、拼管理的任務(wù)。小微規(guī)模的初創(chuàng)公司不可能有這樣的資源整合能力和工程組織能力，這一定是大公司的強(qiáng)項(xiàng)。有人說，我由小到大行不行？我說，不行，時(shí)間不等人。在語義落地領(lǐng)域，如果不能在短時(shí)間內(nèi)爆發(fā)，等著你的就是滅亡。 Semantic grounding requires an engineering adaptation at the interface to the service resources. This is also a very difficult task, and it involves competitions in the scale of resources as well as efficiency and management. Start-up companies can hardly have such a resource integration capacity and the engineering organization capabilities, these are the strength of large companies. Some people say that I can start small and gradually scale up, okay? I said, no, time does not wait for people. In the area of semantic grounding, if products are not developed in a relatively short time to capture the market, there are little chances for survival. 語義落地還需要對人機(jī)對話場景本身的掌控能力。這涉及語境感知、話題切換、情感分析、語言風(fēng)格選擇、個(gè)性塑造等多項(xiàng)技術(shù)，不一而足。語音助理不見得都是越“貧”越“萌”越好，比如適度的淵博、犀利甚至粗魯，也都可以是賣點(diǎn)。 Semantic grounding also calls for the ability to manage the man-machine interactive scene itself. This involves a variety of technologies such as contextual perception, topic switching, sentiment analysis, language style selection, personality shaping and many others. A speech assistant is not necessarily the best if it only mimics human’s eloquence or seemingly likable ways of s. Skills such as moderate profoundness or sharpness in arguments and even some rudeness at times can all be selling points as an intelligent assistant. 所以，我們強(qiáng)調(diào)語義落地對 Alexa 用戶粘性的決定性作用，強(qiáng)調(diào)龐大服務(wù)資源對于 Alexa 成功故事的決定性貢獻(xiàn)。在中國，沒有與亞馬遜規(guī)模相當(dāng)、服務(wù)資源體量相當(dāng)?shù)某笮突ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)出手，沒有對面向漢語的開放領(lǐng)域NLP引擎開發(fā)重量級團(tuán)隊(duì)的出手，單憑語音技術(shù)是不可能產(chǎn)生這樣的用戶粘性的。 Therefore, we would point out the key role of semantic grounding on the stickiness of Alexa users, emphasizing the decisive contribution of large service resources behind Alexa’s success story. In China, if Chinese IT giants with a comparable size of the Amazon service resources do not take the lead, coupled by a solid open domain Chinese NLP engine with a star team, the speech technology alone has no way to generate such a user stickiness as we see in Alexa. 誰會(huì)勝出？ 這年頭，一切不以獲取用戶數(shù)據(jù)為目的的端設(shè)備都是耍流氓。智能手機(jī)獨(dú)領(lǐng)風(fēng)騷多年了，各類智能家居連橫合縱也斗了有幾年了。Alexa 的橫空出世，給了業(yè)界很多刺激和啟示，但地盤屬誰，并沒有蓋棺論定。大家還有機(jī)會(huì)。但是就端云結(jié)合、入口和入口載體結(jié)合形成數(shù)據(jù)閉環(huán)這件事，方向性、趨勢性的東西不可不查，否則機(jī)會(huì)就不是你的。 Who will win then? In essence, it is all about gathering the user data by the end equipments. Smartphones dominate the industry for years, all kinds of smart home solutions across the verticals have also been fighting for several years now. Alexa’s coming to the market stirs the industry with a lot of excitement and revelations, but it is far from what is all set. We still have opportunities. But keep in mind, it cannot be overemphasized to look into issues involving the combination of the end devices with the cloud and the combination between the entry point and the entry point carrier to form a closed-loop data stream. If we lose the sense of directions and trends in these issues, the opportunity will not be ours. 什么是方向性、趨勢性的東西呢？聽我道來。 第一，人工智能一定是下一代的入口模式。也就是說，各種對服務(wù)的需求，必將最終通過人工智能的多通道輸入分析能力和人機(jī)互動(dòng)優(yōu)勢，從端匯集到云；各種服務(wù)資源，必將最終借助人工智能的知識(shí)處理與認(rèn)知決策能力，從云對接到端。你不布局人工智能，未來入口肯定不是你的。 So what is the direction and what are the trends? Let me give an analysis. First, artificial intelligence is bound to be the next generation portal. In other words, all kinds of service needs will inevitably go from the end devices to the cloud through the artificial intelligence multi-channel input analysis, leveraging the human-computer interaction advantages. The variety of service resources will eventually use the knowledge of artificial intelligence and cognitive decision-making ability, to provide to users from the cloud to the end. If you do not lay out a roadmap in developing artificial intelligence, the future portal is definitely not yours. 第二，智能手機(jī)在相當(dāng)長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，仍然是入口載體事實(shí)上的“盟主”，地位不可撼動(dòng)。人走到哪里，通信節(jié)點(diǎn)和數(shù)字身份就跟到哪里，對現(xiàn)場的感知能力和作為服務(wù)代言者的app就跟到哪里。在入口載體所需要的個(gè)人性、私密性和泛在性這幾個(gè)最關(guān)鍵的維度上，還沒有哪一個(gè)其他端設(shè)備能夠與智能手機(jī)相匹敵。 Second, the smartphone for a long time to come will stay as defacto chief carrier. Wherever is the person going, the communication node and the digital identity will follow and the perception of the life scene and the app as the service agent will also follow. There are no other end devices that match the smartphone on the most critical dimensions of the individualness, privacy, and the ubiquitous nature as needed by a portal carrier. 第三，端設(shè)備的通信功能和服務(wù)對接功能將逐步分離。隨著可對接的服務(wù)越來越多樣化，用一個(gè)端設(shè)備“包打天下”已不可能，但每個(gè)端設(shè)備均自帶通信功能亦不可取。Apple watch 和 iPhone 之間的關(guān)系是耐人尋味的：iPhone 作為通信樞紐和客戶端信息處理樞紐，Apple watch 作為專項(xiàng)信息采集和有限信息展示的附屬設(shè)備，二者之間通過近場通信聯(lián)系起來。當(dāng)然，二者都是蘋果自家人，數(shù)據(jù)流處在統(tǒng)一掌控之下。一家掌控，分離總是有限的、緊耦合的。但是，做得初一，就做得十五，今后各種分離將層出不窮，混戰(zhàn)也將隨之高潮迭起。今天是 Alexa 刮旋風(fēng)，明天興許就是誰下暴雨。如果手機(jī)廠商格局再大一點(diǎn)，在區(qū)塊鏈的幫助下，在數(shù)據(jù)的采集方面對各種附屬端設(shè)備的貢獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行客觀的記錄，據(jù)此在數(shù)據(jù)和收益的分享方面做出與各自貢獻(xiàn)對等的合理安排，說不定某種松耦合形式的分離就會(huì)生米做成熟飯，端的生態(tài)到那時(shí)定會(huì)別樣紅火。可以設(shè)想，在一個(gè)陌生的地方，你從懷里掏出一張軟軟的薄薄的可折疊的電子地圖，展開以后像一張真的地圖那么大，卻又像手機(jī)地圖一樣方便地觸摸操作甚至可以結(jié)合語音操作，把它關(guān)聯(lián)到你的手機(jī)上。當(dāng)然，這張圖也可以沒有實(shí)物只有投影。而你的手機(jī)只管通信，所有的操控和展現(xiàn)都在這張圖上完成，根本不需要掏出手機(jī)。這樣的手機(jī)也許從頭至尾就根本無需拿在“手”里，甚至可以穿在腳上，逐漸演化成為“腳機(jī)”…… Third, there will be separation between the communication function of a terminal device and the demanded service function. As the service grows more and more diversified, it becomes impossible for one end device to handle all types of service needs. But it is not desirable for each end device to come with its own communication function. The relationship between Apple Watch and iPhone is intriguing in this regard: iPhone serves as the communication hub as well as the client information processing hub while Apple Watch functions as a special device for information collection and limited information display. They are connected through a “near field communication” link. Of course, both are Apple’s products in one family, the data flow is therefore under a unified control. In such a setting, they are tightly coupled, and the separation is always limited. However, this mode sheds lights to the future when all kinds of separation may be required but they should also be connected in some way. If the mobile phone manufacturers keep an open mind, they can use the block chain technology in data collection with a variety of ancillary equipment to make an objective record of the respective contributions and accordingly make reasonable arrangements with regards to the data and proceeds sharing. A loose coupling of the separation will then evolve and mature, promoting the rapid ecological development of end devices in all kinds of forms. It is imaginable that, when we are in a new place, we can take out from our pocket a soft thin foldable electronic map. This map, when unfolded, looks as big as a real paper map, but it works conveniently just like a mobile map app: it responds to the touch operations and may even accommodate speech instructions to associate with our phone. Of course, this map can also simply be a virtual projection, not necessarily taking the form of a real object. Our phone only needs to take care of communication, all the control and display are accomplished on the map, and we do not even need to physically take out the phone. Such a phone may never need to be held in hands, we may even wear the phone on the foot, and the hand mobile device gradually evolves into a “foot phone” … … Alexa旋風(fēng)帶給你的機(jī)會(huì)和啟發(fā)是什么，想好了嗎？ Are you ready for the opportunity and inspirations brought by the Alexa whirlwind? Translated by: Dr. Wei Li based on GNMT
【Related】 S. Bai: Natural Language Caterpillar Breaks through Chomsky’s Castle |
|
|
