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      經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人丨亞馬遜帝國(guó)

       昵稱36173822 2017-04-30

      導(dǎo)讀


          提道Amazon亞馬遜,稍微有點(diǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的人就知道它是個(gè)網(wǎng)上賣書的,說(shuō)得好聽點(diǎn)就是電商。但亞馬遜不光是電商,它和蘋果、谷歌、微軟一樣,是個(gè)IT公司。從2015年至今,亞馬遜的股價(jià)翻了近兩倍,跑贏標(biāo)普500指數(shù)12倍。為什么投資者如此青睞亞馬遜呢?本期《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》封面文章 Corporate ambitions: Amazon’s empire亞馬遜帝國(guó) 將帶給你答案。通過(guò)這一篇文章,我們將解決以下三個(gè)問(wèn)題:


      • 亞馬遜帝國(guó)的繁榮以及繁榮背后所蘊(yùn)藏的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

      • 亞馬遜取得成功的兩大戰(zhàn)略

      • 監(jiān)管對(duì)亞馬遜實(shí)現(xiàn)其帝國(guó)野心所帶來(lái)的影響。






      Corporate ambitions

      Amazon’s empire

      The world’s most remarkable firm may eventually be threatened byits own success


      企業(yè)抱負(fù)

      亞馬遜帝國(guó)

      世上最優(yōu)秀的公司最終或被自己的成功所威脅




      首先,我們來(lái)解決第一個(gè)問(wèn)題:亞馬遜帝國(guó)的繁榮以及繁榮背后所蘊(yùn)藏的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

      亞馬遜是一家很了不起的公司,之前它是在網(wǎng)上賣書的,美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上每消費(fèi)一元,其中一多半都是亞馬遜的貢獻(xiàn)。但它又不僅僅在網(wǎng)上賣書,它也是世界領(lǐng)先的云計(jì)算供應(yīng)商。而且它也有自己的實(shí)體產(chǎn)品,比如電池、杏仁、西裝以及音箱等等,這些我都沒(méi)用過(guò),只用過(guò)Kindle。文章怎么說(shuō)的呢?我們一起來(lái)看看:


      Amazon is an extraordinary company. The former bookseller accounts for more than half of every new dollar spent online in America. It is the world’s leading provider of cloud computing. This year Amazon will probably spend twice as much on television as HBO, a cable channel. Its own-brand physical products include batteries, almonds, suits and speakers linked to a virtual voice-activated assistant that can control, among other things, your lamps and sprinkler.


      本段從亞馬遜的三重身份:圖書銷售公司(The former bookseller)、云計(jì)算供應(yīng)商(provider of cloud computing)以及實(shí)體產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)商(physical products)來(lái)介紹亞馬遜帝國(guó)的繁榮,論證了首句:Amazon is an extraordinary company. 作為圖書銷售公司,美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上每消費(fèi)一美元,其中亞馬遜就占了一半以上;作為云計(jì)算供應(yīng)商,領(lǐng)先世界,投資金額龐大;作為實(shí)體產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)商,其產(chǎn)品涉及生活的方方面面,還有虛擬語(yǔ)音助手等高科技產(chǎn)品,這是多么繁榮的企業(yè)帝國(guó)!

      亞馬遜是一家與眾不同的公司。美國(guó)在線消費(fèi)每增加一美元,這家曾經(jīng)的圖書銷售公司就占了一多半。它是世界領(lǐng)先的云計(jì)算供應(yīng)商。今年亞馬遜在電視上的花費(fèi)可能會(huì)是有線電視頻道HBO的兩倍。公司自有品牌的實(shí)體產(chǎn)品包括電池、杏仁、西裝以及音箱。這種音箱應(yīng)用了虛擬語(yǔ)音助手,可以控制你的臺(tái)燈、灑水器等裝置。


      文章第二段從市場(chǎng)角度來(lái)分析亞馬遜的強(qiáng)盛。自2015年伊始,該公司股價(jià)高漲,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)跑贏同期的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù);市值達(dá)4000億美元,位列全球第五(前幾名分別為蘋果、谷歌、微軟、伯克希爾·哈撒韋,第六是Facebook,騰訊位列第十)。雖然亞馬遜市值高,但它的收入很少,因?yàn)榇蟛糠质杖攵加糜跀U(kuò)大規(guī)模了。但是,投資者比較看好它的前景,它的市值,也正是基于投資者的預(yù)期。


      Yet Amazon’s shareholders are working on the premise that it is just getting started. Since the beginning of 2015 its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years (and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 index). With a market capitalisation of some $400bn, it is the fifth-most-valuable firm in the world. Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.


      這一部分建議大家背誦,或看著中文翻譯復(fù)述下來(lái)。因?yàn)檫@一部分的句式很標(biāo)準(zhǔn),也經(jīng)常用到,是很好的中翻英對(duì)照材料,如果沒(méi)有看過(guò)這種表達(dá),很難把中文翻成地道的英文。比如:股價(jià)上漲…,是同期大盤的…倍,share price has jumped by...,... times faster than the Shanghai Composite Index市值達(dá)...元,位居第幾/是第幾大公司,With a market capitalisation of ..., it is the fifth-most-valuable firm in the world. 大家可以看看中國(guó)企業(yè)官網(wǎng)的英文介紹,很多讀起來(lái)佶屈聱牙,并不地道,老外看了也不懂。地道的翻譯,一定要從英文材料中汲取靈感。

      Never before has a company... 這句話給大家解釋一下:

      • Never before 是否定詞在句首,應(yīng)該用倒裝。

      • Worth so much 指市值高,是 valuable 的同義替換。上市公司的市值與其收入并沒(méi)有直接的聯(lián)系,而是和股價(jià)有關(guān)聯(lián):在流通股票數(shù)量一定的情況下,股價(jià)越高,市值越大。雖然亞馬遜的收入不高,但投資者對(duì)它的預(yù)期很高,所以提前把股價(jià)炒到了很高的位置,也就是末尾所說(shuō)的:92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020. 因此,它的市值也大了。


      我們來(lái)看翻譯:

      不過(guò)亞馬遜股東們對(duì)其估值的假設(shè)是這家公司才剛剛起步。自2015年初至今,其股價(jià)已上漲 173%,較前兩年相比快了7 倍(跑贏同期標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)12倍)。它的市值約4000億美元,位列全球第五。之前從來(lái)沒(méi)有哪家公司收入如此低,卻能維持這么高的市值如此之久:其92%的市值來(lái)自于2020年以后的預(yù)期盈利。


      既然投資者對(duì)亞馬遜寄予了相當(dāng)高的期望,亞馬遜必須保持高速增長(zhǎng)來(lái)滿足這個(gè)期望,一旦增長(zhǎng)不達(dá)預(yù)期,其市值相當(dāng)大的一部分將變成泡沫,這就是亞馬遜繁榮背后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所在:


      That is because investors anticipate both an extraordinary rise in revenue, from sales of $136bn last year to half a trillion over the next decade, and a jump in profits. The hopes invested in it imply that it will probably become more profitable than any other firm in America. Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation. Can it possibly do so?


      這一段是一個(gè)過(guò)渡段,從繁榮過(guò)渡到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。我們接上段,為什么92%的市值來(lái)自于2020年以后的預(yù)期盈利呢?這是因?yàn)橥顿Y者認(rèn)為,未來(lái)十年,亞馬遜的收入和利潤(rùn)都會(huì)有巨大的增長(zhǎng)。希望越大失望越大,投資者的這種希望迫使亞馬遜的盈利能力要超過(guò)美國(guó)的其它企業(yè),才能保證其估值的合理,它能做到嗎?

      這里先給大家介紹一個(gè)概念——估值。金融領(lǐng)域有一個(gè)指標(biāo),叫“市盈率(P/E ratio, 或簡(jiǎn)稱“PE”),它等于“股價(jià)(P)÷盈利(E)”,能體現(xiàn)估值水平。一般來(lái)說(shuō),以20為界,低于20,說(shuō)明估值水平低,有增長(zhǎng)空間,高于20,說(shuō)明估值水平高,有泡沫。當(dāng)然不同的行業(yè)其正常的估值也不同。以亞馬遜為例,投資者對(duì)該公司的發(fā)展前景看好,把股價(jià)(P)炒了上去,這就要求亞馬遜必須快速發(fā)展,把盈利(E)提上去,才能保證市盈率(PE)的合理,如果E跟不上,會(huì)使PE過(guò)高,帶來(lái)泡沫。這也就是文中所說(shuō):Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation.


      接下來(lái)我們解決一些生詞:

      The hopes invested in itThe hopes that are invested in it,寄托在亞馬遜(it)上的希望,invest 除了“投資”,還可以表示“以...賦予...”,如文中意思,常見搭配為 invest A with. B,例如:


      • Richard's heavy-rimmed glasses invested him with an air of intelligence.

        理查德的厚邊眼鏡使他看上去很有智慧。

      • The buildings are invested with a nation's history.

        這些建筑承載著一個(gè)國(guó)家的歷史。

      • A tsar was a living icon, invested with deep historical and religious significance.

        沙皇曾是活著的圣像,具有深遠(yuǎn)的歷史和宗教意義


      此外,invest 還有“授權(quán),授責(zé),授職”的意思,在之前的《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》中也出現(xiàn)過(guò),不過(guò)我忘了是哪一期,暫時(shí)從詞典中找了一些例句供大家學(xué)習(xí),下次遇到的時(shí)候再細(xì)講:


      • The constitution had invested him with certain powers.

        憲法授予他某些權(quán)力

      • Our government has invested the minister for trade with all the necessary powers to resolve the dispute.

        我國(guó)政府已授予貿(mào)易部長(zhǎng)一切必要的權(quán)力來(lái)解決此次爭(zhēng)端。


      Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this. 首先,否定意思+比較級(jí)=最高級(jí),所以這個(gè)句子表示一種“最”的概念→This is the most fertile ground for scepticism.

      其次,我們?cè)賮?lái)分析 fertile 和 ground 的搭配。Fertile 是“肥沃的”的意思,Ground 是“土地”的意思,fertile ground 就是“肥沃的土地”,而 ground 又有“根據(jù),理由”的意思,這里借用這層意思,套用 fertile ground 的搭配,表達(dá)“懷疑亞馬遜營(yíng)業(yè)能力的最有說(shuō)服力的根據(jù)”。


      我們最后來(lái)看翻譯:

      這是因?yàn)橥顿Y人既預(yù)期其收入猛增——銷售額能從去年的1360億美元漲至十年后的5000億美元,又預(yù)期利潤(rùn)飆升。寄托在它身上的希望暗示亞馬遜或許會(huì)成為美國(guó)盈利能力最強(qiáng)的企業(yè)。對(duì)此表示懷疑的最有說(shuō)服力的根據(jù)是:為了使估值合理,亞馬遜的增速必須超過(guò)現(xiàn)代史上幾乎所有的大公司。它能做到嗎?


      雖然亞馬遜的發(fā)展前景光明,但要成為盈利能力最強(qiáng)的企業(yè),也面臨很多困難。首先,亞馬遜強(qiáng)敵環(huán)飼,在自身發(fā)展之時(shí),其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手不會(huì)坐以待斃:微軟懷有云計(jì)算的雄心,沃瑪特的營(yíng)業(yè)額逼近5000億美元,;其次,如果亞馬遜的創(chuàng)始人兼CEO杰夫·貝佐斯走了彎路,亞馬遜就很難超過(guò)其他公司了。


      It is easy to tick off (to name a list of things) some of the pitfalls. Rivals will not stand still. Microsoft has cloud-computing ambitions; Walmart already has revenues nudging $500bn and is beefing up (strengthening) online. If anything happened to Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and boss, the gap would be exceptionally hard to fill. But the striking thing about the company is how much of a chance it has of achieving such unprecedented goals.


      我們說(shuō)了,上一段是過(guò)渡段,這一段則是對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的具體描述。本段從兩個(gè)方面介紹:一、亞馬遜的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手;二、亞馬遜本身。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手又列舉兩個(gè)栗子加以說(shuō)明:微軟和沃瑪特。我們可以把這一段以思維導(dǎo)圖的方式呈獻(xiàn)給大家:

      結(jié)構(gòu)直觀,生詞已在文中標(biāo)出,我們直接看翻譯:

      要列出幾個(gè)隱患來(lái)非常容易。對(duì)手不會(huì)坐以待斃。微軟在云計(jì)算上野心勃勃;沃爾瑪?shù)臓I(yíng)業(yè)額已逼近5000億美元,并且在加強(qiáng)在線業(yè)務(wù)。如果亞馬遜的創(chuàng)始人兼董事會(huì)主席杰夫·貝索斯(Jeff Bezos )走了彎路,亞馬遜很難趕超其它企業(yè)。然而這家公司引人注目的一點(diǎn)就是它有多大的機(jī)會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)這些前所未有的目標(biāo)。






      第一個(gè)問(wèn)題已經(jīng)解決了,我們?cè)賮?lái)解決第二個(gè)問(wèn)題:亞馬遜取得成功的兩大戰(zhàn)略。

      亞馬遜取得成功取決于兩大戰(zhàn)略,可以總結(jié)為一個(gè)詞:“縱橫交錯(cuò)”?!翱v”指的是時(shí)間方面,長(zhǎng)期投資,“橫”指的是業(yè)務(wù)范圍,廣泛涉足。我們先來(lái)看第一個(gè)戰(zhàn)略:時(shí)間。當(dāng)下,很多企業(yè)高管迫于壓力,只關(guān)注短期收益,但亞馬遜把眼光放得更遠(yuǎn)。亞馬遜擁有兩大主要業(yè)務(wù),一是電商,二是AWS,也就是它的云計(jì)算部門。


      This is largely due to the firm’s unusual approach to two dimensions of corporate life. The first of these is time. In an era when executives routinely whinge about (to complain about) pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon. Mr Bezos emphasises continual investment to propel(to move sth. forward) its two principal businesses, e-commerce and Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud-computing arm.


      文章劃線部分說(shuō),很多企業(yè)高管迫于壓力,只關(guān)注短期結(jié)果,而亞馬遜則把眼光放得更加長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)?!岸唐诮Y(jié)果”文章用的是'produce short-term results',“長(zhǎng)期結(jié)果”,我們依葫蘆畫瓢,應(yīng)該是'produce long-term results',但這樣顯得結(jié)構(gòu)僵硬;而文章用了'focus on the distant horizon',這樣便靈活了很多。在“外交事務(wù)丨杰克遜主義的復(fù)興”一文中,我提到過(guò):“同義變換不僅指用同義詞替換,還可以變換句子的結(jié)構(gòu),從而達(dá)到更高的境界。”這里便是一個(gè)很好的例子。


      這主要是因?yàn)樵摴緦?duì)企業(yè)生命的兩大方面有著非同尋常的態(tài)度。 一是時(shí)間。當(dāng)下,很多企業(yè)高管迫于壓力,只關(guān)注短期收益,而亞馬遜卻堅(jiān)定地把眼光放得更遠(yuǎn)。貝索斯重視持續(xù)投資以推動(dòng)其兩大主要業(yè)務(wù)一一電子商務(wù)和它的云計(jì)算部門Amazon Web Services (AWS )。


      時(shí)間維度上,亞馬遜得益于三個(gè)良性循環(huán):一、在電子商務(wù)領(lǐng)域,亞馬遜吸引的顧客越多,就有越多的零售商和制造商希望能在其平臺(tái)上出售產(chǎn)品,這讓亞馬遜有更多的資金投資新服務(wù),比如兩小時(shí)送達(dá)服務(wù)以及流媒體視頻和音樂(lè),這反過(guò)來(lái)又會(huì)吸引更多的顧客;二、在云計(jì)算方面,越多的顧客用AWS,亞馬遜就有更多的資金投資新服務(wù),這又會(huì)吸引更多的顧客;三、亞馬遜的聲控助手 Alexa 方面,開發(fā)者為Alexa設(shè)計(jì)服務(wù),它對(duì)顧客就越有用,反過(guò)來(lái),開發(fā)者就越有原因開發(fā)新服務(wù)。


      In e-commerce, the more shoppers Amazon lures, the more retailers and manufacturers want to sell their goods on Amazon. That gives Amazon more cash for new services—such as two-hour shipping and streaming video and music—which entice more shoppers. Similarly, the more customers use AWS, the more Amazon can invest in new services, which attract more customers. A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa, the firm’s voice-activated assistant: as developers build services for Alexa, it becomes more useful to consumers, giving developers reason to create yet more services.


      這段話主要講了亞馬遜兩大主要業(yè)務(wù)——電商和AWS所帶來(lái)的兩種良性循環(huán),以及聲控助手帶來(lái)的第三種良性循環(huán)。這段話的結(jié)構(gòu)非常工整,大家也看出來(lái)了,文中我用相同顏色標(biāo)出的地方,它們?cè)诮Y(jié)構(gòu)和內(nèi)容上相互對(duì)應(yīng)。


      前兩種良性循環(huán)都是以 'the more..., the more...' 句式展開,第三種循環(huán)換了一下句式:A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa,'Whirl around' 這里指“關(guān)于”,相當(dāng)于 'center around, surround, be about'。


      亞馬遜吸引越多的客戶,就有越多的錢,然后把這些錢投資到新業(yè)務(wù)上,從而吸引更多的客戶。三種良性循環(huán)的套路都是一樣的。


      “吸引”文章分別用了 'lure, entice, attract' 三種表達(dá),投資開發(fā)新業(yè)務(wù)分別用了 'more cash for new services, invest in new services, create yet more services' 三種表達(dá)。注意第一種表達(dá)'more cash for new services'中,動(dòng)詞“投資”直接用介詞 'for' 表達(dá)出來(lái),大家稍加關(guān)注一下。英語(yǔ)表達(dá)時(shí),多用介詞,少用動(dòng)詞,能用介詞表達(dá)的就不要用動(dòng)詞;中翻英時(shí),將中文中的動(dòng)詞用英文中的介詞表達(dá),會(huì)使譯文地道很多。

      比如,我國(guó)外交部的材料中經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)下面這種句子:

      • 中方呼吁建立更緊密的中美關(guān)系。

      官方通常翻譯為:The Chinese side is calling to build a closer Sino-US relationship.

      其實(shí)這種翻譯還可以更地道、簡(jiǎn)潔:

      The Chinese side is calling for a closer Sino-US relationship.


      在電子商務(wù)方面,亞馬遜吸引的顧客越多,就會(huì)有越多的零售商和制造商希望在在亞馬遜平臺(tái)上銷售產(chǎn)品。這使亞馬遜有更多資金開發(fā)新服務(wù),例如兩小時(shí)送達(dá)以及流媒體視頻和音樂(lè),而這又吸引了更多顧客。與此類似,越多客戶使用AWS,亞馬遜就有更多資金投資新服務(wù),進(jìn)而吸引更多客戶。第三個(gè)良性循環(huán)有關(guān)該公司的語(yǔ)音助手Alexa:開發(fā)者為Alexa設(shè)計(jì)服務(wù),它對(duì)消費(fèi)者來(lái)說(shuō)就越來(lái)越有用,開發(fā)者繼而就有理由去創(chuàng)造更多的服務(wù)。


      只要股東對(duì)這一模式保持信心,亞馬遜令人激動(dòng)的估值就像自我實(shí)現(xiàn)的預(yù)言。亞馬遜可以保持投資,投資又會(huì)使公司更加強(qiáng)大。當(dāng)然,股東信心并非憑空而來(lái),而是受到亞馬遜的業(yè)績(jī)的鼓舞。但亞馬遜也遭遇過(guò)失敗,比如生產(chǎn)智能手機(jī)。但這一業(yè)務(wù)現(xiàn)在也開始產(chǎn)生利潤(rùn)。


      So long as shareholders retain their faith in this model, Amazon’s heady valuation resembles a self-fulfilling prophecy. The company will be able to keep spending, and its spending will keep making it more powerful. Their faith is sustained by Amazon’s record. It has had its failures—its attempt to make a smartphone was a debacle(complete failures). But the business is starting to crank out (produce) cash. Last year cashflow (before investment) was $16bn, more than quadruple the level five years ago.


      Self-fulfilling prophecy: a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.

      “自我實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)言”指的是直接或間接導(dǎo)致預(yù)言本身實(shí)現(xiàn)的一種預(yù)測(cè)。換句話說(shuō),積極的或者消極的預(yù)言,強(qiáng)烈堅(jiān)持的信念,或者錯(cuò)覺(被宣稱是真實(shí)的,其實(shí)是錯(cuò)誤的),都可能足以影響到人們,使人們的反應(yīng)最終會(huì)導(dǎo)致先前錯(cuò)誤的預(yù)言實(shí)現(xiàn)。

      只要股東對(duì)這一模式保持信心,亞馬遜令人激動(dòng)的估值就像自我實(shí)現(xiàn)的預(yù)言。亞馬遜可以保持投資,投資又會(huì)使公司更加強(qiáng)大。當(dāng)然,股東信心并非憑空而來(lái),而是受到亞馬遜的業(yè)績(jī)的鼓舞。但亞馬遜也遭遇過(guò)失敗,比如生產(chǎn)智能手機(jī)。但這一業(yè)務(wù)現(xiàn)在也開始產(chǎn)生利潤(rùn)。去年的現(xiàn)金流(投資前)為160億美元,比五年前的四倍還多。


      如果說(shuō)亞馬遜的橫向戰(zhàn)略是長(zhǎng)期投資,那么它的縱向戰(zhàn)略就是業(yè)務(wù)擴(kuò)張。亞馬遜在年報(bào)中列出了一系列當(dāng)下的和潛在的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,其中包括物流公司、搜索引擎、社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)、食品制造商以及“各種各樣的實(shí)體、數(shù)字、交互媒體”生產(chǎn)商,簡(jiǎn)直包羅萬(wàn)象!


      If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. The company’s list of current and possible competitors, as described in its annual filings, includes logistics firms, search engines, social networks, food manufacturers and producers of “physical, digital and interactive media of all types”. A wingspan this large is more reminiscent of a conglomerate than a retailer, which makes Amazon’s share price seem even more bloated(too big or too high): stockmarkets typically apply a “conglomerate discount” to reflect their inefficiencies.


      首句承上啟下,承接上文的 time-frames,引出下文的 breadth of its activities. 這個(gè)句式用的非常好,if A is..., so too is B

      So 或 such 在句首,句子用倒裝。今天我們遇到了兩種用倒裝的句式,大家不要光知道,還要會(huì)使用。

      Wingspan 指前面的 'breadth of its activities',活動(dòng)范圍之廣。


      如果說(shuō)亞馬遜對(duì)投資時(shí)間期限的態(tài)度非同尋常,那么它對(duì)公司的業(yè)務(wù)范圍也是如此。如其年報(bào)所述,公司目前以及潛在的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手包括物流公司、搜索引擎、社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)、食品制造商和“各種各樣的實(shí)體、數(shù)字及交互式媒體”制作商。如此業(yè)務(wù)范圍如此之廣,使亞馬遜更像一個(gè)企業(yè)集團(tuán)而不是一個(gè)零售商,這愈加讓亞馬遜的股價(jià)看起來(lái)虛高:股市通常會(huì)對(duì)股價(jià)打一個(gè)“企業(yè)集團(tuán)折扣”來(lái)反映它們的低效。


      雖然亞馬遜的業(yè)務(wù)看似很雜,但目的只有一個(gè)——吸引客戶,有了客戶就有數(shù)據(jù),有了數(shù)據(jù)就掌握了主動(dòng)權(quán)。


      Many of these services support Amazon’s own expansion and that of other companies. The obvious example is AWS, which powers Amazon’s operations as well as those of other firms. But Amazon also rents warehouse space to other sellers. It is building a $1.5bn air-freight hub in Kentucky. It is testing technology in stores to let consumers skip the cash register altogether, and experimenting with drone deliveries to the home. Such tools could presumably serve other customers, too. Some think that Amazon could become a new kind of utility: one that provides the infrastructure of commerce, from computing power to payments to logistics.


      這段列舉了亞馬遜涉足的業(yè)務(wù)范圍,為了更直觀,我們可以用思維導(dǎo)圖的方式呈現(xiàn):

      這些服務(wù)中有很多都有利于亞馬遜的發(fā)展,也有利于其他公司的擴(kuò)張。一個(gè)顯而易見的例子便是AWS,它為亞馬遜以及其他公司的運(yùn)營(yíng)提供動(dòng)力。不過(guò)亞馬遜還向其他賣家出租倉(cāng)庫(kù)。它在肯塔基州正在建造一個(gè)價(jià)值15 億美元的空運(yùn)中心。在門店測(cè)試新技術(shù),讓消費(fèi)者完全跳過(guò)到收銀臺(tái)結(jié)賬的環(huán)節(jié),它還在嘗試用無(wú)人機(jī)送貨到家。這些工具或許也會(huì)服務(wù)于其他客戶。有些人認(rèn)為亞馬遜也許會(huì)成為一種新型的公用事業(yè),提供商務(wù)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,比如云計(jì)算能力、支付、物流。


      到目前為止,第二個(gè)問(wèn)題——亞馬遜取得成功的兩大戰(zhàn)略,我們已經(jīng)解決了。我們?cè)僖运季S導(dǎo)圖的方式,對(duì)內(nèi)容做一次回顧:






      最后我們?cè)賮?lái)解決第三個(gè)問(wèn)題:監(jiān)管對(duì)亞馬遜實(shí)現(xiàn)其帝國(guó)野心所帶來(lái)的影響。

      當(dāng)一家公司成長(zhǎng)到足夠大的時(shí)候,必然面臨同監(jiān)管部門的沖突。但就目前來(lái)說(shuō),監(jiān)管部門不大可能對(duì)亞馬遜采取反壟斷行動(dòng)。其原因有二:一為亞馬遜不是美國(guó)最大的零售商;二為亞馬遜不符合美國(guó)反壟斷法執(zhí)行機(jī)構(gòu)的考量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。


      And here lies the real problem with the expectations surrounding Amazon. If it gets anywhere close to fulfilling them, it will attract the attention of regulators. For now, Amazon is unlikely to trigger antitrust action. It is not yet the biggest retailer in America, its most mature market. America’s antitrust enforcers look mainly at a firm’s effect on consumers and pricing. Seen through this lens, Amazon appears pristine(extremely fresh or clean). Consumers applaud it; it is the most well-regarded company in America, according to a Harris poll. (AWS is a boon to startups, too.)


      第一句話開門見山:亞馬遜真正面臨的問(wèn)題如下。這句話的結(jié)構(gòu)特別值得我們學(xué)習(xí)。我們想一想,當(dāng)我們表達(dá)“問(wèn)題”的時(shí)候,我們最先想到的句式是:The problem is...,高級(jí)一點(diǎn)的會(huì)想到:The problem lies in...,而文中則用了倒裝:Here lies the problem with...,這是值得我們借鑒的地方。

      Seen through this lens 相當(dāng)于 from this perspective,因?yàn)楸揪涞闹髡Z(yǔ)是 'Amazon',所以用被動(dòng) 'seen'.


      關(guān)于對(duì)亞馬遜的預(yù)期,真正的問(wèn)題如下。一旦它接近實(shí)現(xiàn)這些目標(biāo),它就會(huì)招來(lái)監(jiān)管部門的注意。目前來(lái)看它還不大可能會(huì)觸發(fā)反壟斷行動(dòng)。在其最成熟的市場(chǎng)美國(guó),亞馬遜還不是最大的零售商。美國(guó)的反壟斷執(zhí)法機(jī)構(gòu)的考量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)主要是一家公司對(duì)消費(fèi)者的影響力及其定價(jià)。從這一角度來(lái)看,亞馬遜還很質(zhì)樸。消費(fèi)者為它拍手叫好;Harris的一項(xiàng)調(diào)査顯示,它是美國(guó)聲譽(yù)最好的公司(AWS對(duì)于創(chuàng)業(yè)公司來(lái)說(shuō)也是一大福音)。


      但隨著亞馬遜的發(fā)展,將會(huì)有越來(lái)越多的人擔(dān)憂它的影響力,公司最終也會(huì)受到反壟斷調(diào)查。但與此同時(shí),監(jiān)管部門對(duì)科技的看法也發(fā)生了改變:數(shù)字平臺(tái)過(guò)去享有更多的法律責(zé)任豁免,而如今,這種豁免逐漸削弱。


      But as it grows, so will concerns about its power. Even on standard antitrust grounds, that may pose a problem: if it makes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests its earnings could be worth the equivalent of 25% of the combined profits of listed Western retail and media firms. But regulators are also changing the way they think about technology. In Europe, Google stands accused of using its clout as a search engine to extend its power to adjacent businesses. The comparative immunity from legal liability of digital platforms—for the posting of inflammatory(likely to cause anger or hate) content on Facebook, say, or the vetting of drivers on Uber—is being chipped away.


      本段從兩個(gè)角度分析了亞馬遜未來(lái)可能面臨反壟斷調(diào)查的原因:一、隨著企業(yè)的增長(zhǎng),影響力在擴(kuò)大,人們也會(huì)越來(lái)越擔(dān)憂。隨后以收益為例進(jìn)行論證;二、監(jiān)管部門改變對(duì)科技的態(tài)度。隨后以谷歌以及臉書、優(yōu)步等數(shù)字平臺(tái)等兩個(gè)例子加以說(shuō)明。

      首句又是一個(gè)倒裝,可以和前面的 If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. 結(jié)合學(xué)習(xí)。


      但隨著亞馬遜的發(fā)展,對(duì)它影響力的擔(dān)憂也在增長(zhǎng)。即使從標(biāo)準(zhǔn)反壟斷角度看,這也會(huì)造成一個(gè)問(wèn)題:如果它像投資人所希望的那樣賺得盆滿缽盈,粗略算下來(lái),它的盈利將相當(dāng)于西方所有上市零售公司和媒體公司總盈利的25%。但同時(shí),監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)也在改變它們對(duì)科技的看法。在歐洲,谷歌遭到指控,有人認(rèn)為它利用自身搜索引擎所帶來(lái)的影響力來(lái)擴(kuò)展相鄰業(yè)務(wù)。相對(duì)而言,數(shù)字平臺(tái)之前享有更多的法律責(zé)任豁免一一比如在Facebook上發(fā)布煽動(dòng)性內(nèi)容或優(yōu)步司機(jī)的審核,但這種豁免如今也在逐漸削弱。


      亞馬遜的商業(yè)模式最終也會(huì)促使監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)改變思路,股東相信亞馬遜的潛力是沒(méi)有錯(cuò)的,但它的成功會(huì)使自己陷入同政府的沖突中。


      Amazon’s business model will also encourage regulators to think differently. Investors value Amazon’s growth over profits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting. In future, firms could increasingly depend on tools provided by their biggest rival. If Amazon does become a utility for commerce, the calls will grow for it to be regulated as one. Shareholders are right to believe in Amazon’s potential. But success will bring it into conflict with an even stronger beast: government.


      英文中有很多類似 'the call will grow' 這樣的表達(dá),翻譯過(guò)來(lái)應(yīng)翻譯成“越來(lái)越多的人呼吁”,要把“人”體現(xiàn)出來(lái),而英文不必,這是中英思維的一個(gè)差異。

      聯(lián)合國(guó)之前有一份材料,關(guān)于潘基文在世界環(huán)境日的致辭,其中有一句話是這樣說(shuō)的:


      • Despite growing global awareness of the dangers of environmental deterioration, which includes climate change, bio-diversity loss and desertification, the progress since the World Environment Summit has been slow.

        盡管全球已有越來(lái)越多的人意識(shí)到環(huán)境惡化所帶來(lái)的危害,包括氣候變化、生物多樣性的喪失和土地荒漠化,世界環(huán)境首腦峰會(huì)以來(lái)的進(jìn)展依然緩慢。


      同期《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》的 Leaders 版塊中有一篇文章叫 The future of the European Union: How to save Europe,昨天,也就是3月25日,是歐盟成立的60大壽,這一篇文章分析了 歐盟的歷史、歐盟面臨的內(nèi)外威脅、傳統(tǒng)解決方案的弊端以及《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》提出的解決方案 這四塊內(nèi)容。其中在分析歐盟面臨的內(nèi)部威脅時(shí),有這么一句話:


      • Prolonged economic pain has contributed to a plunge in support for the EU.

      經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期疲軟導(dǎo)致國(guó)家/人們對(duì)歐盟的支持率大幅下降。


      這也是一個(gè)很好的例子。


      亞馬遜的商業(yè)模式也會(huì)促使監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換思路。相比于盈利,投資者更看重亞馬遜的增長(zhǎng),這讓掠奪性定價(jià)愈發(fā)具有誘惑力。未來(lái),企業(yè)可能會(huì)越來(lái)越依賴其最大競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手所提供的工具。如果亞馬遜確實(shí)發(fā)展成為一個(gè)商務(wù)公用事業(yè),會(huì)有越來(lái)越多的人呼吁,通過(guò)監(jiān)管,將其整合為一個(gè)整體。股東相信亞馬遜的潛力,這一點(diǎn)沒(méi)錯(cuò)。但成功會(huì)把它推向與另一頭更強(qiáng)大的猛獸對(duì)抗:政府。


      End

      the  end






      本期金句

      In an era when executives routinely whinge about pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon.


      浮躁的世界,人心也浮躁起來(lái),眼前的蠅頭小利成為生活者競(jìng)相追逐的對(duì)象。然而,人生是一場(chǎng)馬拉松,不是百米賽,我們是不是該像Bezos一樣,眼光放的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)一些呢?



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