【DKV】預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心：從廣告宣傳到實際交付

yi321yi 2019-05-05

展開全文

Prefabricated modular datacenters:

from hype to delivery

預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心：從廣告宣傳到實際交付

Publication date: Wednesday, August29 2018

發(fā)表日期：2018年8月29日星期三

In one sense, things have gone quiet in the prefabricated modular (PFM) datacenter infrastructure market. There is less debate about definitions and market demand. In another sense, activity has never been greater, with discussions now focused on detailed competitive comparisons about engineering skills, flexibility of vendors, the suitability of configurations and the industrialization capabilities of vendors to deliver.

一方面，預(yù)制模塊化（PFM）數(shù)據(jù)中心基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施市場波瀾不驚，對產(chǎn)品定義和市場需求不再有太多爭議。另一方面，市場動作越來越大，目前的爭論集中在以下細(xì)分的競爭比較方面：工程技術(shù)、廠商靈活性、配置的適應(yīng)性和廠商交付的產(chǎn)業(yè)化能力等。

This is happening because shipments are taking off and the sector is enjoying strong demand–the focus is on practicalities. Why now? The various advertised benefits of prefabrication (that PFM is inherently superior in that it is a faster and more reliable process for building mission-critical facility systems) have not changed. But a growing body of datacenter operators, small or hyperscale, are finding the compressed build project timelines and better risk management highly appealing. At the same time, PFM datacenter offerings from numerous vendors have also matured and proven themselves in production over several years.

這一切的發(fā)生源自出貨量快速增長，圍繞實用性，行業(yè)迎來強勁的需求。為什么是現(xiàn)在呢？有關(guān)預(yù)制成效（預(yù)制模塊化PFM與生俱來的先進(jìn)性，是建造關(guān)鍵任務(wù)型設(shè)施系統(tǒng)更快速可靠的工藝）的各種廣告宣傳從未改變?；虼蠡蛐?，越來越多的數(shù)據(jù)中心運營方，都在尋求縮短項目建造周期的途徑，對如何提高風(fēng)險管理也越來越感興趣。同時，大量預(yù)制模塊數(shù)據(jù)中心廠商日漸成熟，在過去幾年內(nèi)的也用產(chǎn)量證明了自己。

All this has been underscored by agenerally strong global economy and favorable currency moves in 2017. Despite geopolitical turmoil, this gives 451 Research confidence in the continued expansion of the PFM datacenter systems market. We predict an acceleration of growth for 2019 and 2020, when many projects, the foundations of which were laid in 2017 and 2018, will come to fruition.

這要歸功于全球經(jīng)濟走強和2017年有利的匯率變動。盡管動蕩的地緣政治依然存在，451 Research 依然對預(yù)制模塊數(shù)據(jù)中心市場的持續(xù)擴張充滿信心。我們預(yù)計2019和2020年會加速增長，屆時2017和2018年前期夯實的基礎(chǔ)工作將迎來回報期。

The 451 Take

451觀點

The PFM datacenter systems market has overcome its initial stumbling blocks. The industrialized methodology for building datacenter infrastructure has taken root at numerous sizeable operators; it is not a question of 'why do prefabrication?' but 'how to do it best.' Over the coming years, we expect growing (and even widespread) adoption of the PFM method due to competitive pressure to build more datacenters faster, which traditional on-site construction alone will struggle to fully match. Pressure will mount with the trend toward having a more dispersed datacenter infrastructure closer to businesses and consumers, the various forms of which are generally known as 'the edge.' Datacenter construction will see more prefabrication of critical subsystems.

預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心市場已經(jīng)跨越了起步時的重重障礙。建造數(shù)據(jù)中心基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的產(chǎn)業(yè)方法論已經(jīng)植根于各大運營方；現(xiàn)在的問題不再是“為什么要預(yù)制化”，而是“怎樣才能做到最好”。在未來幾年，我們預(yù)計預(yù)制模塊化方法會有更快速增長（甚至廣泛采用），原因在于建設(shè)數(shù)據(jù)中心面臨更快速度的競爭壓力，而傳統(tǒng)的現(xiàn)場建設(shè)方法依然會因全面滿足需求而得以維持延用。建設(shè)靠近業(yè)務(wù)和消費者更分散的數(shù)據(jù)中心設(shè)施，這種趨勢帶來的壓力將依然存在，形式上就是各種“邊緣數(shù)據(jù)中心”。建設(shè)數(shù)據(jù)中心將采用越來越多預(yù)制的關(guān)鍵子系統(tǒng)。

State of the PFM datacenter market

預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心市場現(xiàn)狀

The market for industrialized datacenter facility infrastructure continued to mature in 2017 and into the first half of 2018. In 2016, we had already seen signals of wider acceptance of PFM systems across virtually all segments of datacenter operators. However, there were some strong headwinds: Long project cycles; a strong dollar, which muted IT investments; depressed commodity prices (oil & gas and mining businesses traditionally have been strong buyers of some PFM datacenter types); and macro-economic woes all meant that the health of the overall PFM datacenter market did not reflect the underlying shift underway.

數(shù)據(jù)中心基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施產(chǎn)業(yè)市場在2017和2018年上半年更趨于成熟。在2016年，我們已經(jīng)看到了越來越多數(shù)據(jù)中心運營商接受預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心系統(tǒng)的信號。不過當(dāng)時仍然面臨一些障礙：較長的項目周期，強勢美元降低了IT投資，疲軟的大宗商品價格（原油、天然氣和礦業(yè)都是傳統(tǒng)預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心的主要買家）以及宏觀經(jīng)濟的低迷，預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心市場整體的健康發(fā)展，并未反映出這一深遠(yuǎn)轉(zhuǎn)變悄然進(jìn)行。

These signals have now become stronger, and the 'PFM vs. classic on-site construction' debate has largely moved on. One of the significant changes of 2017 and 2018, compared with previous years, is that a considerable number of mid-tier and large operators have now decided to adopt PFM systems, at least partially, for their new developments (where siting allows for it). At the same time, the economic environment has improved.

現(xiàn)在信號越來越明晰，雖然預(yù)制模塊化和傳統(tǒng)的現(xiàn)場建造的爭議仍在繼續(xù)。與前幾年相比，在2017-2018年有一個明顯變化，有相當(dāng)數(shù)量的中等和大規(guī)模運營方已經(jīng)決定采用預(yù)制模塊化系統(tǒng)，至少在新項目（條件允許下）部分采用。同時，經(jīng)濟環(huán)境也已經(jīng)改善。

These positives helped the market for PFM datacenter systems in 2017 (including not just complete facilities, but any prefabricated infrastructure components sold separately, such as cooling and power modules) to grow by 17% over 2016 and surpass $2.6bn, according to factory revenue data compiled by 451 Research. Even though the very first products had entered the market in the early 2000s and become popular for industrial and military operations, it wasn't until the turn of this decade that PFM systems started to gain serious currency with operators.

這些積極的因素幫助預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心市場2017年相比2016年增加了17%，（不僅包括全套設(shè)施，還有各類可單獨銷售的預(yù)制設(shè)施如制冷和供電模塊），451 Research 的數(shù)據(jù)顯示廠商銷售營收超過了26億美元。2000年后首批次產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)進(jìn)入市場，并在業(yè)內(nèi)和軍方開始流行，直到近10年，預(yù)制模塊化系統(tǒng)才開始在運營方盛行。

451 Research has previously explored the various benefits of prefabrication over classical construction approaches. These include better quality controls, repeatable results and overall improvements to project management – all of which reduce risks. These are the result of shifting complex electrical and mechanical tasks from the construction site to a highly controlled and more productive factory environment. Another major factor that will stimulate demand for more PFM datacenter systems is the speed and scale at which midsize to large datacenter operators require standardized capacity in a growing number of locations.

451 Research 此前就預(yù)制相對傳統(tǒng)建造方式的各種優(yōu)勢進(jìn)行了調(diào)研，包括更高的質(zhì)量控制、可重復(fù)的結(jié)果和項目管理的全方位改進(jìn)，幾方面都降低了風(fēng)險。這都是把復(fù)雜的機電工程內(nèi)容從建設(shè)現(xiàn)場轉(zhuǎn)移到工廠中的成效，在工廠中有更嚴(yán)格的管控的同時生產(chǎn)效率也更高。另一個刺激對預(yù)制模塊化系統(tǒng)需求的重要因素是速度與規(guī)模，中等和大型數(shù)據(jù)中心運營商在越來越多地點需要標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的交付能力。

Operators use PFM datacenter systems in a variety of ways, and although some trends have taken shape in recent years, such as the growing use of PFM electrical subsystems at multi-megawatt sites, the landscape remains diverse, with no single approach dominating. This is because, at its core, it is not about specific engineering choices per se – the choice of approach depends on a wide range of factors, such as the business case (where does the datacenter operation add value?), technical requirements, siting conditions, geographical location, organizational ability to manage change, etc.

運營商通過各種方式使用預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心系統(tǒng)，有些趨勢近年來漸漸清晰，例如在兆瓦級項目場地中越來越多采用預(yù)制模塊化電力子系統(tǒng)，情形各異并沒有哪項突出占優(yōu)。這是因為其核心，本質(zhì)上不是具體的工程選項，可選方式依賴多種因素如成功的商業(yè)案例（哪里可以為數(shù)據(jù)中心運營方帶來增值？）、技術(shù)需求、現(xiàn)場情況、地理選址，組織應(yīng)對變化的能力等等。

Outlook

展望

Underpinned by the ongoing global buildup of datacenter capacity, 451 Research maintains a generally positive outlook for PFM datacenter systems. Benefits are available even if the operator modularizes just parts of the datacenter facility – be it the electrical room, the mechanical plant or the data hall.

有全球數(shù)據(jù)中心建設(shè)能力不斷提供做支撐，451 Research 對預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心系統(tǒng)維持樂觀的展望，即便是數(shù)據(jù)中心運營方在部分設(shè)施如在配電室、設(shè)備間或是機房區(qū)域，使用模塊化系統(tǒng)的成效同樣可觀。

Vendors report not only growing bookings, but also the need to add manufacturing capacity to match demand going into 2019 and beyond. With this shift, the profile of the PFM market is moving away from one that was dominated by containerized and container-like installations and one-off projects, and toward one of repeat installations of datacenter subsystems and turnkey facilities at scalable campuses.

來自廠商的報告不僅反映了預(yù)訂數(shù)量的增長，還有為滿足2019年及之后產(chǎn)能擴充的需求。隨著這一轉(zhuǎn)變，預(yù)制模塊化市場也從主要由集裝箱、類似集裝箱式安裝和一次性項目的方式發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變，轉(zhuǎn)為在可擴展的園區(qū)內(nèi)，數(shù)據(jù)中心子系統(tǒng)可重復(fù)安裝和設(shè)施交鑰匙建設(shè)的方式。

In its updated view, 451 Research currently forecasts the market for PFM datacenter infrastructure products to approach $4.4bn by 2021, up from $2.2bn in 2016 – this represents a five-year CAGR of 14.4%. Most of this growth will come from scalable datacenter facilities (what many would consider as mainstream) serving a wide range of workloads, as opposed to containerized and custom enclosures that are typically deployed toward specific tasks.

根據(jù)451 Research 最新的觀點，估計預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心產(chǎn)品市場到2021年將從2016年的22億美元增長到44億美元，5年間的復(fù)合增長率CAGR達(dá)到14.4%。增長的大部分來自可擴展的數(shù)據(jù)中心設(shè)施方面（很多人同意這部分會成為今后主流）將承載更多業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)載，而集裝箱式和客戶定制方式將用于特定用途。

The PFM datacenter systems market remains highly fragmented, with dominant centers of gravity yet to emerge. While 451 Research expects revenue to become concentrated in the hands of a relatively few vendors over time, today the market remains largely open and competitive – even though this will likely change soon as the market matures and positions solidify. 451 Research tracks over 60 suppliers of PFM datacenter systems worldwide.

預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心市場仍然是非常分散的，尚未有占突出優(yōu)勢廠商出現(xiàn)。451 Research預(yù)期未來銷售額會越來越集中在少數(shù)幾家廠商手中，今天的市場仍然是相當(dāng)開放和有競爭性的，盡管這一切將隨著市場的成熟和實力的穩(wěn)固而發(fā)生變化。451 Research長期跟進(jìn)全球60多家預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心廠商的動態(tài)。

Although not specifically revealed in the numbers, 451 Research continues to predict that true fine grained modularity and build-to-fit configurations, as opposed to monolithic and homogenous capacity chunks, will be a new frontier for innovation in order to help drive down facility costs and performance optimization into the next decade. We now also expect stronger densification of IT systems in the pursuit of more performance (as the use of energy by silicon escalates), which will make the cost of prefabricated datahalls more attractive – a smaller footprint means less expensive high-grade steel.

雖然沒有公布具體的數(shù)字，451 Research 繼續(xù)預(yù)測細(xì)粒度模塊化和為適用而建的配置將成為今后十年的創(chuàng)新前沿，將會降低設(shè)施成本和優(yōu)化性能，而不是單一和同質(zhì)模塊的堆疊。我們期待支持追求更高的性能的更高密度IT系統(tǒng)（半導(dǎo)體消耗的能源不斷提升），這將讓預(yù)制數(shù)據(jù)中心的成本更加有吸引力，更小的空間占用意味著消耗更少價格不菲的構(gòu)件材料。

Other than external economic and geopolitical shocks to IT investments, the biggest threat we see to PFM datacenter vendors is the possibility that large and hyperscale operators will take PFM design and supply chain matters into their own hands (e.g., commissioning their own designs, signing contract manufacturers, setting up assembly sites, or acquiring engineering and PFM manufacturing capacity). Nonetheless, the industrialization of large core sites (typically multi-tenant, IT service provider and hyperscale) will continue in the coming years, we believe, and that is where the bulk of the growth will be coming from.

與外部經(jīng)濟和地緣政治沖突對IT投資影響不同，我們認(rèn)為對預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心廠商的最大威脅是大型IDC運營商和云廠商也許會把預(yù)制模塊化的設(shè)計和供應(yīng)鏈后向一體化（如調(diào)試自己的設(shè)計，與供應(yīng)商簽合同，建組裝線，或者收購工程項目和預(yù)制模塊化產(chǎn)能）。不過，大型核心項目的建設(shè)（典型的多租戶，IT服務(wù)提供商和云廠商）將在未來幾年中持續(xù)，我們相信這才是大部分增長的來源。

For a more detailed discussion of the data and PFM vendors, please see our study, Global Prefabricated Modular Datacenter Forecast 2017-2021: Picking Up Speed. The full report includes more detailed market-sizing and forecast breakdowns for different PFM datacenter form factors and geographies, as well as recommendations to suppliers and buyers of PFM datacenter infrastructure.

如需了解有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)和預(yù)制模塊化廠商更詳細(xì)的討論內(nèi)容，請參閱我們的調(diào)研報告《全球預(yù)制化數(shù)據(jù)中心展望2017-2021：加速前進(jìn)》。完整的報告包括更詳細(xì)的市場容量和不同預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心因素和地理布局的細(xì)分類，也同時涵蓋推薦的供應(yīng)商和預(yù)制模塊化數(shù)據(jù)中心設(shè)施的買家信息。

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