Mar 31st 2018

BRITAIN’S bloodiest battlefield of the past half-century was not in the Middle East, the Balkans or the South Atlantic. It was on home turf. A thousand British soldiers and police officers were killed in Northern Ireland during three decades of the “Troubles”, twice the number who died in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. The civilian death-toll was twice as high again.

在過(guò)去的半個(gè)世紀(jì)里，英國(guó)最血腥的戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)不是在中東、巴爾干半島或南大西洋，而是在自己的地盤上。在30年的“麻煩”中，數(shù)千名英國(guó)士兵和警察在北愛(ài)爾蘭被殺，這是在伊拉克和阿富汗死亡人數(shù)的兩倍。平民的死亡人數(shù)是這個(gè)數(shù)字的兩倍。

Twenty years ago that awful conflict was ended by the Good Friday Agreement. As Britain and Ireland each softened their claim to the province, Protestants and Catholics agreed to share power in Stormont. The centuries-old question of to whom Northern Ireland belonged was carefully buried for future generations to unearth when they were ready.

20年前，“耶穌受難日”協(xié)議結(jié)束了可怕的沖突。隨著英國(guó)和愛(ài)爾蘭各自對(duì)該省的要求軟化，新教徒和天主教徒同意在斯托蒙特共享權(quán)力。北愛(ài)爾蘭的歸屬，這個(gè)有幾百年的歷史問(wèn)題，已經(jīng)為子孫后代精心埋藏好了，就等著他們準(zhǔn)備好了的時(shí)候去發(fā)掘。

Now Britain’s impending exit from the European Union, foreseen by nobody in 1998, has posed the question again, long before Northern Ireland has an answer. Britain’s ruling Conservatives treat this as, at best, a detail and, at worst, an irritation on the road to Brexit. That is an error—possibly a fatal one.

在1998年還無(wú)人能夠預(yù)見(jiàn)，現(xiàn)在的英國(guó)即將退出歐盟，在北愛(ài)爾蘭還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有答案之前，這個(gè)問(wèn)題又一次被提出了。 英國(guó)執(zhí)政的保守黨把這看作是，往好了講，是英國(guó)脫歐路上的一個(gè)細(xì)節(jié)，往壞了講，是脫歐路上的一種刺激。 這是一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤 —— 可能是一個(gè)致命錯(cuò)誤。

After two decades of peace, Northern Ireland is at once transformed and unchanged. Violence has dried up to the point where the crime rate is lower than the British average. Hotspots where armoured cars used to rumble now receive convoys of tourists. Yet beneath the bandage of the Good Friday Agreement, the healing has been slow. Protestants and Catholics still lead segregated lives. Just 5.8% of children are in formally integrated primary schools. Stormont is gridlocked and has been suspended for over a year.

在經(jīng)歷了20年的和平之后，北愛(ài)爾蘭變了，同時(shí)也沒(méi)有變。暴力事件已經(jīng)發(fā)展到犯罪率低于英國(guó)平均水平的程度。裝甲車過(guò)去隆隆作響的特點(diǎn)地方，現(xiàn)在可以接收到游客的車隊(duì)。然而，在“耶穌受難日”協(xié)議的繃帶下，傷口愈合緩慢。新教徒和天主教徒仍然過(guò)著種族隔離的生活。只有5.8%的兒童在正規(guī)的綜合小學(xué)就讀。斯托蒙特陷入僵局，已被暫停一年多。

In London some say that this shows the Good Friday deal has failed. That is to misunderstand its purpose. Peace agreements stop conflicts; reconciliation and integration are generational tasks. Chivvied along by the British and Irish governments, Northern Ireland’s parties had until recently kept faith. Society is changing too slowly, but it is inching forward.

在倫敦，有人說(shuō)這表明了“耶穌受難日”的協(xié)議失敗了。這是對(duì)其目的的誤解。和平協(xié)議停止沖突；和解和融合是世代的任務(wù)。在英國(guó)和愛(ài)爾蘭政府的敦促下，北愛(ài)爾蘭的政黨直到最近才保持信心。社會(huì)變化太慢，但它正在緩慢前進(jìn)。

Brexit now threatens this. Britain and Ireland are too distracted to give enough attention to Belfast, which looks like the child in an acrimonious divorce. Britain squandered its standing as a neutral referee when the Conservatives formed a governing alliance with Northern Ireland’s main unionist party and the Labour opposition voted in a vocal republican as its leader. The Irish government has aggravated tensions by reviving talk of unification, something it previously tiptoed around. Both prime ministers must now go out of their way to show they are committed to getting Stormont up and running.

脫歐正在威脅著這個(gè)。英國(guó)和愛(ài)爾蘭太過(guò)分散，無(wú)法給予貝爾法斯特足夠的關(guān)注，貝爾法斯特看起來(lái)就像一個(gè)離婚的孩子。當(dāng)保守黨與北愛(ài)爾蘭主要的統(tǒng)一黨結(jié)成執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟時(shí)，英國(guó)浪費(fèi)了它作為中立裁判的地位，而工黨的反對(duì)黨則投票選出一個(gè)直言不諱的共和黨人作為它的領(lǐng)袖。愛(ài)爾蘭政府通過(guò)恢復(fù)有關(guān)統(tǒng)一的言論，加劇了緊張局勢(shì)，而之前對(duì)此一直是小心翼翼的。兩位首相現(xiàn)在都必須走自己的路，表明他們致力于讓斯托蒙特繼續(xù)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。

Above all, Brexit has revived nagging questions of identity. The Good Friday Agreement and both countries’ membership of the EU allowed people to forget about whether they felt Irish or British. Their option of dual citizenship, the invisible border and growing north-south co-operation, on everything from electricity markets to health care, blunted the distinction. Brexit sharpens it again.

最重要的是，退歐讓人們重新開(kāi)始絮叨身份的問(wèn)題?！耙d受難日”協(xié)議和兩國(guó)的歐盟成員國(guó)身份，讓人們忘記了自己是愛(ài)爾蘭人還是英國(guó)人。他們的雙重國(guó)籍、無(wú)形的邊界和不斷增長(zhǎng)的南北合作，從電力市場(chǎng)到醫(yī)療保健，都削弱了這種區(qū)別，脫歐又讓它重新顯現(xiàn)。

This is clearest at the border. Britain says it will leave the EU’s single market and customs union, and that new technology will let it do this without any new infrastructure or inspections at the Irish frontier. The EU (and plenty of others) doubt that this is possible. The EU argues that such technology does not yet exist and says that if Britain cannot come up with a more convincing plan, Northern Ireland must maintain customs and regulatory alignment with the EU. In effect, that would create a border between it and Britain.

這在邊境是最明顯的。英國(guó)表示，它將離開(kāi)歐盟的單一市場(chǎng)和關(guān)稅同盟，而新技術(shù)將讓它在愛(ài)爾蘭邊境，在沒(méi)有任何新的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施或檢查的情況下做到這一點(diǎn)。歐盟（以及其他許多國(guó)家）懷疑它的可能性。歐盟辯稱，這種技術(shù)還不存在，并表示如果英國(guó)不能拿出一個(gè)更有說(shuō)服力的計(jì)劃，北愛(ài)爾蘭必須維持與歐盟的海關(guān)和監(jiān)管協(xié)調(diào)。實(shí)際上，這將在北愛(ài)爾蘭和英國(guó)之間建立一個(gè)邊界。

A farewell to arms

For The Economist, this is not much of a conundrum. We have long argued that Britain would be better off staying in the customs union and single market; that this also keeps Ireland’s border invisible only adds to the case. Polls suggest that most voters agree. But the government believes that anything less than a hard Brexit would betray the referendum.

對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來(lái)說(shuō)，這并不是一個(gè)大難題。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)我們一直認(rèn)為，英國(guó)最好留在關(guān)稅同盟和單一市場(chǎng)；也只有在這種情況下，愛(ài)爾蘭的邊境才能不被看到。民意調(diào)查顯示，大多數(shù)選民都同意這一觀點(diǎn)。但英國(guó)政府認(rèn)為，任何沒(méi)有達(dá)到硬退歐的事情都是在背叛公投。

Some Brexiteers dismiss the border question as a ploy by Ireland and “Remoaners” to wheedle a soft Brexit. They are being superficial and reckless. Northern Ireland’s Catholics are deeply unsettled by Brexit, which undermines assumptions on which the Good Friday Agreement was made. Protestants are jumpier still. In recent decades they have lost their grip on government, business and the public sector; they will soon be outnumbered. Erecting barriers between either community and the place each considers its home would cause anguish.

一些退歐派人士認(rèn)為，這一邊界問(wèn)題是愛(ài)爾蘭和“偏遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)”的一種策略，目的是誘惑英國(guó)軟退歐。他們是膚淺的、魯莽的。北愛(ài)爾蘭的天主教徒對(duì)英國(guó)退歐深感不安，這破壞了“耶穌受難日”協(xié)議的假設(shè)。新教徒更加忐忑，近幾十年來(lái)，他們已經(jīng)失去了對(duì)政府、商業(yè)和公共部門的控制；他們很快就會(huì)被超越。在社區(qū)和每個(gè)人都認(rèn)為是自己的家園的地方設(shè)置障礙會(huì)引起痛苦。

Again, Brexiteers play this down, arguing that a border like Canada’s with America would be easy enough to cross, and that trade between Northern Ireland and the south is small. Some have even said Ireland should leave the EU and join a single market with Britain, so strong are the commercial links.

再一次，退歐派認(rèn)為，像加拿大和美國(guó)這樣的邊界很容易跨越，北愛(ài)爾蘭和南部之間的貿(mào)易規(guī)模很小。一些人甚至說(shuō)，愛(ài)爾蘭應(yīng)該脫離歐盟，與英國(guó)一起加入一個(gè)單一市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)樗麄兊纳虡I(yè)聯(lián)系如此緊密。

To understand why this misses the point, they should examine their own triumph in 2016. They won the Brexit referendum because arguments about culture and identity trumped those about economics. Some of the MPs telling the Irish to calm down about the prospect of a few cameras and customs officers are outraged at the news that British passports are set to be made by a French company. Brexit suggests that, when people feel that remote elites are trampling on their culture and threatening their identity, they react unpredictably. Northern Ireland is a dangerous place to put that theory to the test.

要理解為什么這一點(diǎn)沒(méi)有切中要害，他們應(yīng)該審視自己在2016年取得的勝利。他們贏得了英國(guó)退歐公投，因?yàn)橛嘘P(guān)文化和身份認(rèn)同的爭(zhēng)論戰(zhàn)勝了經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。一些議員要求愛(ài)爾蘭人對(duì)未來(lái)的前景冷靜下來(lái)，一些海關(guān)官員對(duì)英國(guó)護(hù)照將由一家法國(guó)公司制造的消息更是憤怒。退歐表明，當(dāng)人們覺(jué)得遙遠(yuǎn)的精英們正在踐踏他們的文化并威脅他們的身份時(shí)，他們的反應(yīng)是不可預(yù)測(cè)的。北愛(ài)爾蘭是一個(gè)可以把這個(gè)理論應(yīng)用到測(cè)試中去的危險(xiǎn)的地方。

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "Identity theft"

英文原文選自《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》